Mr.
Boris Rumer has been at the Russian Center at Harvard University
since 1979, concentrating on the analysis of the Soviet and Post-Soviet
economics of Eurasia. Among the main themes of his research have been
the study of the economic potential of the Soviet Union as a whole,
as well as of its particular regions (Siberia, Central Asia), the investment
sphere, some sectors of Soviet Industry, and the conversion of former
Soviet defense industry. The results of these projects were published
in two books and numerous articles. Central Asia's economy, political
situation and the region's social dynamics have long occupied an important
place in Dr. Rumer's research agenda. In 1986-1988, he completed a major
research project on the Central Asian economy, resulting in his book
Soviet Central Asia, A Tragic Experiment, published in 1989.
In the 1990s, Mr. Rumer has concentrated on problems of economic transition
in the Central Asian Countries. His two most recent books (as editor
and co-author), Central Asia in Transition (1996), and Central
Asia: The Challenge of Independence (1998) provide an economic and
political analysis of the Central Asian countries. Since 1994, Mr. Rumer
has been leading research on Central Asia, which has been conducted
by The Sasakawa Peace Foundation in the framework of the project "Implementing
a Market Economy in Central Asia: Implications from the East Asian Experience."
This project has supported a broad range of empirical research, training,
and education to help the countries of Central Asia to facilitate and
maximize opportunities in market transformation.
Ms.
Martha B. Olcott is a Professor in the Department of Political Science
at Colgate University and a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment
for International Peace in Washington, D.C. Ms. Olcott received her
BA from SUNY Buffalo in 1970, and her Ph.D. from the University of Chicago
in 1978. A student of Central Asia and the nationality problems of the
former Soviet Union since 1973, she is one of America's leading specialists
on Central Asia, and enjoys a wide international reputation as well.
In July 1994, Ms. Olcott was named by President Clinton to be a Director
of the Central Asian American Enterprise Fund. Martha Olcott is also
a prolific author, and has published some fifty articles in academic
journals and books. She is the author of The Kazaks (Hoover Institution,
Stanford University Press, 1987, second revised edition 1995), The
New States of Central Asia (United States Institute of Peace, 1996),
and a co-author of Getting It Wrong: Regional Cooperation and the
Commonwealth of Independent States (Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, 1999).
At the end of the 1990s, two distinct tendencies have emerged as the predominant features of contemporary Central Asia: degradation in the social and economic spheres and growing tensions in the relations among states in the regions. The root cause of both tendencies is a profound economic crisis, which, as has become increasingly obvious, the governing regimes in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan can neither resolve nor even contain. These two tendencies are threatening to unleash a social explosion (all the more likely amidst of the increasing importance of the Islamic factor) and also to trigger interstate conflicts, destabilizing this vast region in the center of Eurasia.
