The Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA

"Crisis in Central Asia: Economic Decline and the Threats of Regional Destabilization"

by

Mr. Boris Rumer
Russian Center
Harvard University

Discussants:

Mr. Paul Goble
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Ms. Martha B. Olcott
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Thursday, January 27, 2000
12:00 to 2:00 PM

at

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Choate Room, First Floor
1779 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC

For information on this event please contact Seminar Program
at 202 296-6695 or at seminar@spfusa.org

The "Asian Voices: Promoting Dialogue between the US and Asia"
Seminar Program is supported by a grant from
The Sasakawa Peace Foundation

About This Seminar

At the end of the 1990s, two distinct tendencies have emerged as the predominant features of contemporary Central Asia: degradation in the social and economic spheres and growing tensions in the relations among states in the regions. The root cause of both tendencies is a profound economic crisis, which, as has become increasingly obvious, the governing regimes in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan can neither resolve nor even contain. These two tendencies are threatening to unleash a social explosion (all the more likely amidst of the increasing importance of the Islamic factor) and also to trigger interstate conflicts, destabilizing this vast region in the center of Eurasia.

About the Panelists

Main Speaker

Mr. Boris Rumer has been at the Russian Center at Harvard University since 1979, concentrating on the analysis of the Soviet and Post-Soviet economics of Eurasia. Among the main themes of his research have been the study of the economic potential of the Soviet Union as a whole, as well as of its particular regions (Siberia, Central Asia), the investment sphere, some sectors of Soviet Industry, and the conversion of former Soviet defense industry. The results of these projects were published in two books and numerous articles. Central Asia's economy, political situation and the region's social dynamics have long occupied an important place in Dr. Rumer's research agenda. In 1986-1988, he completed a major research project on the Central Asian economy, resulting in his book Soviet Central Asia, A Tragic Experiment, published in 1989. In the 1990s, Mr. Rumer has concentrated on problems of economic transition in the Central Asian Countries. His two most recent books (as editor and co-author), Central Asia in Transition (1996), and Central Asia: The Challenge of Independence (1998) provide an economic and political analysis of the Central Asian countries. Since 1994, Mr. Rumer has been leading research on Central Asia, which has been conducted by The Sasakawa Peace Foundation in the framework of the project "Implementing a Market Economy in Central Asia: Implications from the East Asian Experience." This project has supported a broad range of empirical research, training, and education to help the countries of Central Asia to facilitate and maximize opportunities in market transformation.

Discussants

Mr. Paul Goble is a Communications Director for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and publisher of RFE/RL Newsline. Earlier, he served as a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, special advisor for Soviet nationality problems and Baltic affairs at the State Department, director of research at Radio Liberty, and special assistant for Soviet nationalities in the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Trained at Miami University and the University of Chicago, he is the editor of four volumes on ethnic problems in the former Soviet Union and has published numerous articles and commentaries on ethnic and nationality questions.

Ms. Martha B. Olcott is a Professor in the Department of Political Science at Colgate University and a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D.C. Ms. Olcott received her BA from SUNY Buffalo in 1970, and her Ph.D. from the University of Chicago in 1978. A student of Central Asia and the nationality problems of the former Soviet Union since 1973, she is one of America's leading specialists on Central Asia, and enjoys a wide international reputation as well. In July 1994, Ms. Olcott was named by President Clinton to be a Director of the Central Asian American Enterprise Fund. Martha Olcott is also a prolific author, and has published some fifty articles in academic journals and books. She is the author of The Kazaks (Hoover Institution, Stanford University Press, 1987, second revised edition 1995), The New States of Central Asia (United States Institute of Peace, 1996), and a co-author of Getting It Wrong: Regional Cooperation and the Commonwealth of Independent States (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1999).

About the Seminar Program

The "Asian Voices: Promoting Dialogue between the US and Asia" Seminar Program seeks to provide a forum for Asian voices to be heard within the Washington community-voices on a wide range of regional and global topics. The Seminar Program, however, will not be restricted solely to Asia-Pacific issues, or US-Japan relations, but will focus on the broader global questions that confront both parts of the world.

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